There are strong trends in the price of data storage devices:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historical-cost-of-computer-memory-and-storage
https://www.backblaze.com/blog/hard-drive-cost-per-gigabyte/
People have speculated that if the current trends persists the price per TB of SSDs will become cheaper than HDDs by 2030: https://www.reddit.com/r/DataHoarder/comments/17sljc1/as_requested_an_improved_chart_of_ssd_vs_hdd/?ref=share&ref_source=link
This market closes on or before 1st of January 2031. The result will be YES if there is a period of at least 1 month where the average price per TB of the top 10 results of the commercially available SSDs is cheaper than the average price per TB of the top 10 results of the HDDs: https://diskprices.com/?locale=us&condition=new&disk_types=external_hdd,external_hdd25,internal_hdd,internal_hdd25,internal_sshd,internal_sas,external_ssd,internal_ssd,m2_ssd,m2_nvme,u2
Otherwise the market will resolve NO on 2031/01/01
1,000
3.00Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording is advancing so rapidly now that I find it difficult to see the hard disk becoming obsolete for huge datacenters anytime soon.
If the current trends continue it seems that this market will resolve YES, but I have some worries about the roadblocks SSDs might encounter in the coming years. The HDD price trend has been around for longer (due to the technology existing for longer) which makes me believe that more of the potential future hickups have been worked out. For example flash storage had huge drops in price for a few years but that trend was not able to continue to reduce the price below HDD prices.