Including both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended.
Note: This market it only for Palestinian deaths, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the deaths are related to the war). This will not include any deaths from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.
UPDATE from Oct 13th:
The following criteria will be used to determine if the war is over. Either of the following should be true:
There's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that lasts for at least 30 days.
There's a 30-day period in which less than 100 people die on the Palestinian side due to the war, even in the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement.
Update from Oct 15th:
To avoid bias when resolving this market, I've sold all my positions and will no longer place additional bets.
Update from July 8th 2024:
Since the war has now lasted much longer than expected, resolving this market will likely prove to be very difficult. I will ask for help from both Israeli and Palestinian Manifold/Metaculus users in helping me figure out a fair estimate from Israeli sources, once the war is complete.
See also
Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (see creator comment): - Multiple Trustworthy Israeli Sources will be used: The resolution will consider data from all reliable Israeli sources, not limited to a single source.
Community Submissions: Users are encouraged to provide additional sources along with explanations of why they think they're trustworthy. The market will rely on community sourcing to ensure all viewpoints are taken into account.
The market author will be posting his own research after the market is closed and there will be a 'comment' period if there's a significant disagreement among sources.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - Sources should be in Hebrew or Arabic (as they're Israel's official languages) and published by an Israeli newspaper, TV channel, NGO, or other trustworthy organization based in Israel. (see creator comment)
Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Use of International Sources: Death toll figures reported by international organizations, such as the UN, will not be used under any circumstances - the market is about Israeli sources only (see creator comment)
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (see creator comment): End of War Criteria:
See the criteria stated earlier in the market text. They will not change under any circumstances. This market will resolve on Feb 19th 2025 if the current ceasefire is still recognized as 'active' by both sides, even if there's active warfare going on.
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Israeli media include both Arabic-language and Hebrew-language sources.
Sources must be headquartered and operating primarily within Israel.
Subsidiaries of foreign networks, such as Al-Jazeera, are not considered Israeli sources.
Update 2025-27-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution if Ceasefire Holds and No New Reports:
Resolve the death toll to a range of 64,260 - 128,000, based on the latest numbers reported by Israeli sources.
This resolution will occur if the ceasefire remains in place and no new casualty numbers are published in Israeli media within the next few weeks.
Users may challenge this resolution by providing additional Hebrew-language or Arabic-language media reports published since January 1st, 2025, that present different casualty figures.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Use of Numbers Published on or after January 19th: All numbers published on or after January 19th (the date when the ceasefire started) will be used, with a simple average of all sources.
Handling Multiple Publications: If a single publication publishes multiple numbers within the accepted time period, the creator will select the number they find most trustworthy or average the latest numbers if no specific number is highlighted.
Each Source's Input: Each publication/source only counts as one input into the final average.
6-Week Window: If no additional estimates are published within 6 weeks after the ceasefire started (March 5th), all estimates published in January will be used.
Current Best Estimates: As of now, Maariv and Kikar published their estimates on January 11th and 14th respectively, making their numbers the best available.
1,000
3.00Current summary of what I could find. If the ceasefire does hold and no new numbers appear in Israeli media in the next few weeks, I'll resolve the question to 64k-128k, as "64,260" seems to be the latest reported number by Israeli sources. Feel free to challenge my view on this by linking to Hebrew-language or Arab-language media reports published since Jan 1st 2025 which have different numbers.
# Gaza War Casualty Reports: Israeli Media Coverage
October 7, 2023 - January 2025
## January 2025: New Casualty Estimates
### Maariv (January 11, 2025)
https://www.maariv.co.il/news/military/article-1163264
Reports on new Lancet-published study findings:
- Deaths estimate: 55,298-78,525 (median 64,260)
- Missing persons: 11,000 (presumed dead)
- Population decline: ~100,000 left Gaza (6% decrease from 2.3M)
- Research: Yale and London School of Hygiene using capture-recapture analysis
### Kikar (January 14, 2025)
https://www.kikar.co.il/world-news/sq2z2p
Covered The Lancet Study as well
## December 2024: Official Hamas Figures
### Haaretz (December 16, 2024)
https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/2024-12-16/ty-article/00000193-cf94-d5a8-a1ff-cfb6189c0000 (see https://archive.is/wNGMJ for a non-paywall copy)
Hamas Health Ministry reporting:
- Total deaths: 45,028
- Additional: 10,000+ estimated under rubble
- Excludes natural deaths and medical access issues
## May 2024: Earlier Reports
### Makor Rishon (May 14, 2024)
https://www.makorrishon.co.il/news/802500/
Links to Henry Jackson Society analysis, which challenges:
- Questions accuracy of 44,000 death count
- Highlights inclusion of natural deaths (~5,000/year)
- Notes civilian/combatant classification issues
- Identifies statistical irregularities
- Disputes 44% child casualty rate
- Estimates 17,000 Hamas fighters among casualties
### Ynet (May 14, 2024)
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/hjdtuagm0
Reported contemporary Hamas Health Ministry figures
@nsokolsky Here is TOI, an Israeli source (albeit not a Hebrew one), citing the 45000 figure in January 2025: https://www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-population-down-by-6-since-war-began-says-pa-bureau-citing-hamas-figures/
"Around 45,500 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, have been killed since the war began and another 11,000 are missing, the bureau said, citing numbers from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry."
@nsokolsky Is this just the latest reported number? So the fact that they reported on the Lancet study, which is quite an old study, more recently than the Henry Jackson report and more recently than even saying the "Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry" is enough to trigger a yes for 64-128? I thought you are supposed to go by a census, not just taking the latest reported number. Everything they have reported on, other than the Lancet study, is under 64K. A few of these Lancet studies shouldn't result in a consensus...
@nsokolsky Here's Jerusalem Post (English-language Israeli source, January 27 2025): https://www.jpost.com/international/article-839500
"According to the Gaza-run Hamas health ministry, over 47000 Palestinians have been killed in the war and approximately 110000 injured."
Here's ynet from very late in 2024 citing the Hamas-run Health Ministry again:
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sjfe4k6bkx
"According to the ministry, since the start of the war, 45,484 people have been killed in the Strip, and 108,090 have been injured."
@nathanwei All the sources you cite are based on confirmed deaths from the health ministry, which itself acknowledges that its number is an undercount due to this fact. Additionally, claiming that the Lancet article, which is arguably the most comprehensive and authoritative analysis, is an "old study" is an odd way to claim the number of deaths should be revised downward from it, considering that this isn't a number that ever goes down.
This seems in line with my expectations. Yeah I mean we had the 10k+ missing number almost a year ago. People who thought that the count was permanently stopped, or exagurated, either didn't know the history of the Health Ministry or didn't understand how casualties relate to death tolls once aftermath counting begins.
All numbers published between January 19th (date when ceasefire started) and Mar 5th (6 weeks after, both dates inclusive) will be used, with a simple average of all sources. So if Ynet publishes
47,000on Feb 1st and Maariv publishes68,000on Feb 25th, the market will resolve to57,500.If a single publication publishes several numbers within the accepted time period, I'll try to pick the number they state to be the most trustworthy in their opinion -- or an average of the latest numbers if no number gets highlighted by them. In any case each publication/source only gets 1 input into the final equation.
If no one publishes another estimate within 6 weeks after the ceasefire started (March 5th), I will use all estimates published in January.
Since Maariv and Kikar published their estimates on January 11th and 14th respectively, their numbers are the best we have for now.
Please send in any numbers you find in Hebrew or Arabic from Israeli sources, as my list is almost definitely incomplete.
@nsokolsky https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/1/20/rescuers-find-dozens-of-bodies-in-gaza-rubble-amid-israel-hamas-ceasefire
Israeli attacks on Gaza killed more than 47,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded more than 111,000, according to local health authorities.
But the Palestinian Civil Defence agency said it estimated there are 10,000 bodies under destroyed structures across the strip.
10 + 47 = 57 < 64
@nsokolsky I think these are pretty fair standards, although I would be wary of stopping the count if Israeli news outlets are still saying the count is increasing in 6 weeks.
@nsokolsky I guess what @VonGadke wants to say is that the suggested resolution criteria are flawed if even Al Jazeera reports lower numbers.
@nsokolsky https://www.jpost.com/international/article-839500
English language Israeli source from Jan 27 saying 32K-64K
@nathanwei I think it's marginal right now and the big decider will be if the numbers get revised up by Israelis acknowledging missing and critical injury deaths in the next couple months.
@nsokolsky Israeli media (ynet) cites the IDF giving an estimate here of the dead number of Hamas fighters from the IDF, on the order of 20-25 K: https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/r1kansbdjl?utm_source=ynet.co.il&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=copy_url
As far as I know, the IDF claims that a decently high % of deaths are military, which would correspond to <64K total deaths. I think I saw this somewhere. I will try to find more sources confirming this.
@nsokolsky In December Maariv reported on the Henry Jackson Society estimate: https://m.maariv.co.il/news/military/article-1156107
@nsokolsky How about this?
https://x.com/roni_eitan/status/1884892593034567836?s=46
Low estimates of death from Israelis. They are saying 1:1 ratio. Does this count as a media outlet?
@nathanwei @nsokolsky Dors this JPost count? It’s recent and published from after the ceasefire started.
@traders if you speak Hebrew or have an interest in browsing through Israeli media consider posting a comment with your write up of what the correct resolution number should be. All the sources you bring up should be in Hebrew or Arabic and published by an Israeli newspaper, TV channel, NGO or other trustworthy organization based in Israel.
@nsokolsky The only source I could find is the UN it has the information in English, Hebrew and Arabic. It was not published by an Israeli newspaper… but all other resources including newspapers report “speculation” and it is not much of a research. The main problem is that it is almost impossible to cross information, seems like everything is converging into one source.
@nsokolsky In what cases will you consider non-Israeli numbers for this market? Say for example a conclusive report is filed by the UN.
And how will you resolve considering that, while the attacks in Gaza have stopped, the attacks continue on the West Bank. How will this affect the 30 ceasefire criteria you've set, and will those killings count towards the total? If so, under which circumstances will you stop counting them?
@nsokolsky Ispeak Hebrew
i don't have time right to comb through documents but you're welcome to dm me documents to translate if you find anything of interest
@BP17b6 The question isn't about what "source" the newspapers refer to, the question is what "death toll" they end up reporting, assuming the current ceasefire holds. "According to UN, <...> people have died in the conflict on the Palestinian side" would be one example of how this could be reported (translated into Hebrew or Arabic).
@GazDownright Re: end of war. The market criteria cannot change at this point. This means that a ceasefire agreement recognized as active by both sides will count even if there's still active combat going on 30 days after it comes into force.
Re: non-Israeli numbers. Clarified this now in the market text, but the same applies here: they will not be used under any circumstances. Israeli sources quoting the UN is fine, but the UN as a source by itself will not be directly used for resolution, nor would any other entity who's not 'Israeli'.
@nsokolsky Got it, thank you.
I acknowledge that the question of whether Israeli media is the best source for reporting Palestinian deaths is a discussion for another setting.
@GazDownright Note that "Israeli" media include both Arab-language and Hebrew-language sources! But it has to be a source headquartered and operating primarily from within Israel, and not a subsidiary of a foreign network such as Al-Jazeera.