On which year will China first land a person on the Moon?

Plus

Ṁ960

2050

0.8%

2026

2027

15%

2028

35%

2029

19%

2030

28%

Other

Resolves to the year that China first successfully lands a person on the Moon.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Space

#Space exploration

#Artemis 3 / Human Moon Landing

Get

1,000

and

3.00

2 Comments

18 Holders

68 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ4 Other YES1mo

Just for absolute clarity's sake: Will this resolve "other" if 2030 passes without a landing?

News: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2RL07VqymajfAHW-ibUFHA

The new generation manned spacecraft is named "Mengzhou" and the lunar lander is named "Lan Yue". .

In English, these mean Dream Boat and and Embracing the Moon. The name Dream Boat is about carrying. the Chinese people's space dream. The name Embracing the Moon is a reference to a poem of Chairman Mao.

After the construction of the Chinese space station is completed, landing on the moon has become the next goal for the Chinese to explore space.

At present, the Mengzhou spacecraft, lunar lander and Long March 10 carrier rocket have fully entered the preliminary prototype development stage, and all work is progressing smoothly .

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions