Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
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Refer to the winners of Who are the top 10 AI researchers?
This market resolves YES if one of the 10 winners of the above market claim that we are in a "winter" for AI at any time before 2026. Here are the names:
Ilya Sutskever
Yann LeCun
Andrej Karpathy
Yoshua Bengio
Geoffrey Hinton
Jürgen Schmidhuber
Alec Radford
Paul Christiano
Demis Hassabis
Eliezer Yudkowsky
The statement needs to be unambiguous and officially given by the person. Twitter is fine, but private conversations don't count.
I won't be betting in this market.
Related markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Learn more.Related questions
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