How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost?
How much will gpt-4.5 inference cost?
💎
Premium
45
Ṁ110k
resolved Feb 27
100%95%
$100-$300
2%
<$30
2%
$30-$100
0.3%
$300-$1000
0.2%
$1000+

OpenAI has recently announced that they are training a new frontier-scale model. How much will this model cost?

By "gpt-4.5" here I mean any model that is clearly announced as a more capable newer generation of model, ideally whatever is the output of the training run they are currently performing. If they call the model "gpt-5" or "gpt-4.25" or "gpt-next" or anything like this that will count as "gpt-4.5" for the purpose of this question.

This will be an average of input and output prices per million tokens, with the formula (output price + 2x input price) / 3. I will take the pricing for the cheapest option available that is the same model (e.g. gpt-4-8k, not gpt-4-32k). On this metric claude opus is $35/mtok, gpt-4 is $40/mtok, gpt-4-turbo is $16/mtok, and gpt-4o is $8/mtok. I will go by the first publicly announced prices I see.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • The O1 line of models will not count as they are not considered a new base model

  • This market is intended to capture the price of the "Orion" model or equivalent new base model that represents the output of OpenAI's current training run

  • Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will only resolve based on a new base model/pretrain, not RL tuned versions

    • O1 models are considered RL tunes of GPT-4 and will not count for resolution

  • Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Updates:

    • Market duration extended by six months.

    • Resolution will be based on O3 prices if available, or ideally the prices of Orion directly released.

    • If GPT-4.5 is not available directly, will use the best estimate of GPT-4.5 prices.

  • Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:

    • The market will now use the first announced price for the GPT-4.5/Orion model to determine the outcome.

    • This confirms that pricing for the model will be based on the initial pricing information released by OpenAI.

    • The clarification applies specifically to the pricing of the new base model (GPT-4.5/Orion) as opposed to any subsequent or RL-tuned versions.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ25,835
2Ṁ1,027
3Ṁ996
4Ṁ423
5Ṁ254


Sort by:
bought Ṁ5,000 $100-$300 YES7h

Resolving to $100, option 3. $75 for input, $150 for output, https://openai.com/api/pricing/.75*2 + 150)/3=100. $100 is option 3 because option 1 is <$30, so $30 is not that, then option 2 is $30-$100 (not inclusive on the end), then option 3 is $100-$300.

7h

@sophiawisdom I bet on option 2 thinking it would include $100. This wasn’t clear …

15d

Looks like GPT-4.5/Orion will be shipped, and so the price for Orion will be knowable. The price for this market will be whatever the first announced price for that model is.

"We will next ship GPT-4.5, the model we called Orion internally, as our last non-chain-of-thought model." https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244

1mo

I'm not sure whether O3 prices, once they become publicly announced, should count for this market.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards extending the market duration six months and then resolving on either O3 prices if those become available (because it seems likely the base model underlying O3 is Orion, which is the base model I was trying to capture) or ideally the prices of Orion itself released directly.

It's unfortunate to have to use the RL-tuned prices for this, but I didn't anticipate when asking the question that GPT-4.5 would not be available directly in any form, so we'll have to use the best estimate of GPT-4.5 prices.

bought Ṁ5,750 $30-$100 YES2mo

@sophiawisdom does this resolve with the O1 line of models?

O1-mini was announced at the same time as o1-preview, and o1-preview has a pricing of $15/mtok input and $60/mtok output, so (60 + 15*2)/3 == $30 on the dot, which I presume means this market resolves to the 30-60 bucket (since the first bucket is <30?).

I'm a little surprised I'm the first to find this.

edit: (no longer relevant)

2mo

@Sketchy Interesting point. I think not, because in my understanding o1 is not a new base model. It's something I should have accounted for when I asked this question. As I wrote, I was trying to capture "ideally whatever is the output of the training run they are currently performing" -- I believe this to be the "Orion" model they are likely planning to announce in the next 9 days.

@sophiawisdom Gotcha. Do you think they were training Orion back in early June? That quote about "whatever the output of the current training run" was honestly more evidence to me that you meant o1, since it was released in September, a couple months after this market was created on June 3.

How would you have accounted for it when you wrote the market, since it wasn't released yet?

2mo

@Sketchy I was aware that openAI was in the middle of training a new large model. I think there were news articles about this at the time. I was referring to a new base model / pretrain. O1 is, afaict, a RL tune of gpt-4o

bought Ṁ1,000 <$30 NO2mo

@sophiawisdom Does o3 count, if they ever release it through API?

sold Ṁ92 <$30 YES8mo

What happens if two new models are announced (like 4 & 3.5)? Will this take the price of the higher end one or the lower end? Eg if we get gpt 5 and gpt 4.5, which does the market use to resolve? If gpt 5, then higher numbers are in play.

8mo

@wrhall I hadn't considered this question. I suppose I mean the most expensive (presumably highest quality) model that they release. Thank you for the clarification.

I would note that as far as I can tell there haven't been two SOTA models released at the same time before.

bought Ṁ2,000 <$30 YES8mo

@sophiawisdom this is $5/million input, $15/million output for gpt4o
https://openai.com/api/pricing/

I think this can resolve?

bought Ṁ1,000 $30-$100 YES8mo

@chris The market was created after GPT-4o so doesn't refer to it.

8mo

@chris I don't count gpt-4o as gpt-4.5, given that it is inferior to gpt-4-turbo on a number of benchmarks (or at least not clearly superior). What I am primarily intending to capture in this market is the new frontier-scale model that OpenAI announced they were training recently. I listed gpt-4o in the description, which I think makes it clear I didn't count gpt-4o.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules