By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?
By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?
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Autonomous robotic systems - systems that can perform surgical interventions without any human involvement in the actual operation, potentially under human supervision
Routine - covered by common health insurance plans
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How is this market going to resolve, if a human has to monitor the surgery and intervene in case something goes wrong, but otherwise the surgery is fully automated?
Or in other words, what "level of driving automation" would this market expect for surgery? 2 (hands off), 3 (eyes off), 4 (mind off), 5 (human completely unneeded)?
I bet on YES expect a level 2 automation: a human is required by law to monitor on the process. Anything more than that feels unrealistic because the legislation in medical matters isn't going to be change that quickly.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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