This market resolves to the pathogen that is most closely related to the pathogen causing a novel disease outbreak in Equateur, DRC. According to WHO, the disease was traced to three children who ate a bat and died in January. As of 2/15, 431 cases have been reported and 53 people have passed away as a result of the outbreak. The disease is now characterized as a "significant public health threat." Victims’ symptoms include fever, vomiting, diarrhea, and body aches, and disease progression is rapid, with half of the deaths occurring 2 days after disease onset. Testing in Kinshasa has ruled out Marburg and Ebola as the causes. The WHO report says "Differential diagnosis under investigation include malaria, viral haemorrhagic fever, food or water poisoning, typhoid fever, and meningitis."

This market is based off of the market created for the mysterious flu-like disease that spread in Southwestern Congo last year (which was likely primarily due to malaria) . Note that this new illness in the Northwest is likely distinct from that illness in the Southwest, since this is in a different region of the Congo and the Congo is a massive nation.

Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/world/africa/unknown-deadly-illness-congo.html

The title of the article seems to be misleading, the WHO bulletin and the article says the disease outbreak is in Equateur, in the northwest of the country, not the east.

• Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:

  • If investigation establishes that the primary cause is not a pathogen but is due to inorganic chemical or radiation poisoning, the market will resolve as a non-biological toxic event.