As a mana-only trader, this website just got a whole heck of a lot more confusing to use (taking into account both the return of Acceleration and the new limit order system).

the sell all shares button is gone

@Robincvgr it's back

10% sweepcash tax will kill nearly all trading

@nikki 10% just seems so big

I also hate the upcoming fee structure, because it makes figuring out the correct prices to trade out much more complicated, but they aren't necessarily much higher than other sites.

Some examples for comparison:

If you trade 100 shares at 50%, the expected fees are profit_if_you_win * prob_win * fee = $50 * 50% * 10% = $2.5 . While on Kalshi, the fees for the same trade are significantly lower at $1.75 (https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf).

On the other hand, if you buy 100 shares at 40% and sell at 60% for a $20 profit, the Manifold fees are $20 * 10% = $2 while the Kalshi fees are $1.68 on both the buy and sell = $3.36, so Kalshi's fees are much higher.

Generally, Kalshi's fees are probably higher for more trades with smaller margins, while Manifold's fees are probably higher on high-margin trades (including buying uncertain outcomes and holding to resolution)

@jack the math might not matter as much as how traders feel

I think that's valid! Manifold needs to figure out how to charge fees that bring in similar revenue without driving away users. I have a feeling that the headline number being big (10%) makes it seem worse, even though the fact that it's 10% of profits vs Kalshi's being on shares transacted is a massive difference.

As a compromise, I would suggest a membership subscription I could pay for that can bypass the fee structure. This would incentivise me to trade as much Sweepcash as possible because of the use-it-or-lose-it feeling of having already paid in.

@Quroe A subscription system isn't compatible with a whale-based economy. Which is probably what Manifold wants.

@jim Oh, good point.

The per-market fee is a good compromise between a long term tax like a withdraw fee and a per-trade fee which is much more distortionary. In the worst case, which is trading in 1 direction only around 50%, the fee will average about 2.5% (you win about half the time and the fee is based on about half the payout). So you should only bid it up to 47% if your p = 50%.

If you trade in both directions or if the probability is closer to 0 or 1, then the impact of the fee is reduced.

@Manifold I have no idea how to use this site anymore. What are you guys doing?

Yeah, I didn't particularly like the change to Sweepcash rules. I don't think I can be correct with a 10% disadvantage on Sweepcash markets unless I am trading on guaranteed news, but I understand that Manifold needs to make money.

That being said, I think I'd be willing to pay money for customization of my profile with flair, skins, etc. Stuff that doesn't give me a pay to win advantage.

Oh, it's 10% of profits only. Not just the sheer payout. Not as bad, but still enough to make my brain do gymnastics on how much I want to bet.

Attracting the “normies”, allegedly.

Odds of getting my free money before the fee change not looking so good

i cant set limit orders to second precision anymore

Trades are not going through and creating limit orders instead. I can't bet up or down to the percent I prefer. Please assist, thank you!

@mods

@10thOfficial this is some new feature they just rolled out i think

> We're taking a new stab at attracting more liquidity for your trades! All market orders placed on the site are now limit orders at +/-5% from the current probability with a second-long expiration. We're still working out the details and would love feedback on your experience. We're also working on figuring out how to incentivize more bots to use the new glut of limit orders. See the writeup here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/The-Yunaplan-for-Liquidity-18254492ea7a80e0984add56470a9770?pvs=74 And for those running bots that want to fill all these new fast-expiring limit orders, I've added API documentation on our websocket endpoint to listen to trades, a new /v0/contract/[marketId]/prob to get uncached market probabilities, and /v0/market-probs?ids=1&ids=2,... to get multiple, uncached question probabilities https://docs.manifold.markets/api#websockets https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0market-probs https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0marketmarketidprob

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Yikes, I’m going to need an explainer about this feature, I have no idea what any of that means. Thank you!

Honestly, no idea what’s going on with this. Can I opt out from this feature?

@10thOfficial im as lost as you lol

@10thOfficial if you want to bet more you have to use a limit order now I guess.

I think it makes sense because it makes it explicit that you're betting on a certain probability rather than just putting a bunch of mana in?

The change was made with the intention of making things simpler lol

I strongly dislike this change.

@mods @Manifold Seriously, please revert or allow us to opt out. It’s made the site irritating and unusable.

@10thOfficial am I understanding right that it only affects you if you make a trade that would move the market by more than 5%? Surely it's very rare that you'd want to make such a big adjustment with one trade? If you do want to, I assume you can set a limit order to the percentage you want.

The only potential downside I can see of this change is that there might be less "dumb money" for me to exploit if people are nudged away from placing large non-epistemic bets.

@10thOfficial agreed, it's bad

@Fion It's a pretty common move in low-liquidity markets that don't get a lot of attention

@10thOfficial

Takes 10 clicks to do something that used to take 1 🙃

@10thOfficial If you want to move the market by more than 5%, you have to use a limit order now.

The good: it protects users (especially new users) from accidentally getting massive price slippage.

The bad: the interface is pretty bad right now. E.g. there should be an obvious way to place a trade that does move the market if that's what you want, you shouldn't have to know that the only way to do that is limit order.

@jack

there should be an obvious way to place a trade that does move the market if that's what you want

This would improve the situation a lot

@strutheo yeah this is super unintuitive lol seems it would be way better to just have the "woah, are you sure you want to move the market by x%?" message trigger more easily if there's a problem with people accidentally moving it too much