What will the 51st state of the United States of America be?
What will the 51st state of the United States of America be?
Basic
17
Ṁ10152041
38%
Washington District of Columbia
35%
Puerto Rico
9%
Greenland
8%
4%
Canada
3%
Alberta
2%
Guam
2%
US Virgin Islands
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not worth betting due to time horizon, but i think PR is far more likely due to some level of bipartisan support, that it could be a competitive state, and zero constitutional issues. There is simply zero incentive for Republicans to make DC a state and give Dems 2 Senate seats.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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