🍎What will happen in September 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
🍎What will happen in September 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
13
Ṁ357Oct 1
95%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
92%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
80%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
80%
dick cheney still alive at end of month
80%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
69%
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
69%
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
69%
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
69%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
67%
noam chomsky alive until end of month
63%
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
57%
NASDAQ hits an all time high
50%
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
50%
starship launch
50%
trump leaves usa at least once
50%
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
50%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
50%
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
50%
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
50%
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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