🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? [ADD RESPONSES]
➕
Plus
278
Ṁ290k
Mar 30
97%
A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well
96%
Andrew Tate
95%
Josh Hawley
94%
Dylan Klebold
94%
A severe case of ulcerative colitis
93%
Trump's attempted assassin
92%
A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president
91%
A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants
91%
A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"
91%
Kang and/or Kodos
89%
Ivan the terrible
89%
Albert Speer
88%
Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi
85%
A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life
85%
Cersei Lannister
84%
Steve Bannon
82%
Otto Skorzeny
79%
Steve Sailer
76%
Karl Donitz
74%
John Hinckley Jr.

High Percent answer = Manifold would vote for Trump instead of this person
Low Percent answer = Manifold would vote for this person instead of Trump

Will be resolved by a poll for each option when the market closes.

See other for more options: 🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? #2

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3mo

@strutheo To be clear, all questions resolve YES/NO, not to poll percentage? And if the poll is tied, does it resolve 50%?

3mo

@yetforever correct, they only resolve yes or no

bought Ṁ500 YES6mo

@strutheo Resolves YES

[deleted]

reposted

I’m surprised no one has voted on Qin Shi Huang yet

Just created a similar market but versus yourself instead of Trump

8mo

As founder and CEO of openasteroidimpact.org, I strongly contest the current top choice.

8mo

already did giuliani, want to pick another @StochasticParrot ? i renamed it placeholder

Heads up guys, these active options were unironically literal Nazis (or 'just' in the Nazi Wehrmacht):

  • Karl Donitz

  • Erich von Manstein

  • Albert Speer

  • Otto Skorzeny

  • Hasso von Manteuffel

  • Erwin Rommel

and these options were suspiciously Nazi-adjacent/enabling:

  • Paul Von Hindenburg

  • Erich Ludendorff

  • Jozef Tiso

  • Phillipe Petain

  • Miklos Horthy

  • Franz von Papen

and these options were confederates:

  • James Longstreet

Manstein and von Manteuffel were not Nazis, the latter was moreover a moderating influence

Erich von Manstein:

Hasso von Manteuffel:

seems sus 🤔

bought Ṁ25 NO8mo

Being in the wehrmacht does not imply being a Nazi

bought Ṁ20 YES

May I have permission to add this to my out-of-context quotes market? (if option creation costs become affordable ever again lol)

8mo

lol yes good one

You don't get a second chance with AI X-risk, and Yann seems quite likely to consistently and competently sabotage the AI safety efforts of others

Moreover, even if you think Trump would deal with it even worse, Yann's likely policies could make it much more likely that the take-off happens within his own presidency rather than whoever gets elected next

@TheAllMemeingEye

To quote @BrunoParga's comment:

"

Linus Pauling was a Nobel Prize-winning chemist, just like LeCun is a Turing Award winner for AI capabilities research.

Linus Pauling was really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he was an expert in, biochemistry - he believed in consuming massive amounts of vitamin C for your health.

Yann LeCun is really, really dumb about a closely related but distinct subject than the one he's an expert in, AI safety - he believes corporate law could control AGI (among other batshittery).

Both of them persevere because they are not aware of their ignorance in the relevant field.

The difference is that Pauling made expensive pee, and LeCun might get humanity

extinct

"

@TheAllMemeingEye

If Yann causes superintelligence alignment to fail, it will kill us and everyone we love.

https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/

"We are not ready. We are not on track to be significantly readier in the foreseeable future. If we go ahead on this everyone will die, including children who did not choose this and did not do anything wrong." - Eliezer Yudkowsky

Obviously it's not guaranteed, but I personally believe the chances are 20-40% of death.

bought Ṁ100 YES9mo

Trump's veto is the reason the PATRIOT Act is no more, a bill I'd assume the modal Manifolder heavily dislikes

7mo

False: the House never passed the reauthorization, no veto took place.

9mo

he is died

9mo

@Lexer spoilers

9mo

@robm sorry. how do i deleted a comment

9mo

@Lexer you don't, but you can edit it to read "[deleted]" and nothing else

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