Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of 2025 in the USA?
Will 1000 herds of livestock be infected by H5N1 by the end of 2025 in the USA?
Basic
13
Ṁ7632026
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
resolves YES if 1000 or more herds are affected by the end of year, as reported by this website
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Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve based on data through December 31, 2024
Update 2025-03-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria Clarification:
The total count of affected herds includes all herds currently affected as well as any additional herds affected by the end of 2025. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Does this include the 905 herds that have already been affected? Or is it only counting additional herds affected in 2025?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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