Will the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?
Will the first self-sustaining base on Mars begin being established within 20 years as Elon Musk says?
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9
Ṁ4182045
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
resolve YES if a starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2044 with the parts and/or people necessary to establish a permanent city or base
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?34%
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?11%
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bought Ṁ5 YES
How does this resolve if SpaceX is rapidly overtaken and made redundant by the first ASI (possibly from X AI but probably from other companies), which starts single-handedly designing, building, and launching missions to build self-sustaining mars bases?
Also does base in this context require biological humans or would any structure housing mobile beings such as AI drones also count?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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