Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Who will be the most cited ML researcher alive in 2040?
Plus
19
Ṁ13172040
17%
Geoffrey Hinton
11%
Yoshua Bengio
10%
Kaiming He
14%
Ilya Sutskever
48%
Resolving based on Google Scholar ranking e.g. for now it looks like this https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&hl=en&mauthors=label:machine_learning
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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