Will Manifold Introduce Parlays by the End of 2025?
Will Manifold Introduce Parlays by the End of 2025?
Plus
11
Ṁ13k2026
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will close at the end of 2024 unless this market receives large interest.
Resolves YES if Manifold introduces any feature that allows users or creators to create a parlay using multiple separate markets.
DM or comment with any related questions
Thank you for participating!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
If you do a parlay at a bookmaker, you are gambling against the house. It's easy for them to offer such service and the house edge compounds for them with every bet. On prediction markets it's almost technically impossible imo to make parlays because it's different counterparties to bets. Unless if you actually make a new market where you resolve it based on the outcome of other markets. For example if these 3 markets resolve yes the bet wins, otherwise no. But then that's not really a feature.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Manifold add dedicated conditional markets in 2024 or 2025?
30% chance
Will Manifold fix betting before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2025?
15% chance
Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026?
64% chance
Will Manifold add the ability to edit the amount of your bet within seconds of making it by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will manifold allow to bet on two or more markets at once before end of 2025?
21% chance
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
79% chance
By the end of 2025, will players at Magic: The Gathering tournaments be allowed to use Manifold to bet on them?
10% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2040?
65% chance
Will Manifold be acquired by end of 2030?
69% chance