Will Manifold Introduce Parlays by the End of 2025?
Will Manifold Introduce Parlays by the End of 2025?
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Plus
11
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2026
5%
chance

Will close at the end of 2024 unless this market receives large interest.

Resolves YES if Manifold introduces any feature that allows users or creators to create a parlay using multiple separate markets.

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6mo

Why? Manifold doesn't know how correlated the markets are.

6mo

How would the math of this work for an AMM?

6mo

If you do a parlay at a bookmaker, you are gambling against the house. It's easy for them to offer such service and the house edge compounds for them with every bet. On prediction markets it's almost technically impossible imo to make parlays because it's different counterparties to bets. Unless if you actually make a new market where you resolve it based on the outcome of other markets. For example if these 3 markets resolve yes the bet wins, otherwise no. But then that's not really a feature.

reposted 7mo

Very hopeful to see this feature

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