By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
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Ṁ20102027
64%
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I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.
If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.
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predictedYES 2y
Here's one candidate: a meta-optimiser that just won a best paper award at NeurIPS "Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer" https://openreview.net/forum?id=-Qp-3L-5ZdI
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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