If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
If Trump wins, will undocumented immigration go down? (Southern Border)
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resolved Feb 12
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If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will immigration at the south west border drop?

I will use numbers for border encounters at the Southwest border from the CBP which you can see here: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

If the total number for 2025 is lower than the total number for 2024, the market resolves yes. Otherwise no. If Trump doesnโ€™t win it resolves n/a

I will add monthly numbers to compare calendar year 2024 to 2025, not the financial year totals used by CBP (FY starts in October).

Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.

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11mo

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112079753989223875

"My first acts as your next President will be to Close the Border, DRILL, BABY, DRILL, and Free the January 6 Hostages being wrongfully imprisoned!"

reposted 11mo

This is a great pair of markets, I've got them on the If Trump Wins Dashboard.

I already added some subsidy yesterday, and I'm adding another ten thousand mana right now!

11mo

The title is inconsistent with the description.

11mo

@Bart5f6d Whatโ€™s the inconsistency?

@voodoo Actually he's got got a point in that from the title someone might assume you would use official statistics on total immigration, including legal immigration, from everywhere and not just Mexico.

Maybe we should change the title to "illegal immigration" or "illegal immigrant border crossings"?

11mo
11mo

@ManifoldPolitics Hard to call it illegal either as some of it turns legal.

Not sure what a more precise but still concise title to useโ€ฆ

@voodoo Maybe "southern border immigration"? Agreed it's a bit tricky.

11mo

@ManifoldPolitics Undocumented?

@voodoo Yeah that seems reasonable.

11mo

Encounters are a measure of enforcement. While they may be a proxy for undocumented immigration, they are by definition โ€œdocumentedโ€.

I think transparently representing that this market is about โ€œencountersโ€ is better than โ€œundocumented immigrationโ€, since that matches the resolution criteria, but the problem remains that โ€œencountersโ€ also increase or decrease based on the length CPB goes to detain people (I personally think this objection is possible to overcome).

@BlueDragon My intent was for a metric to approximate undocumented immigration and when I looked at the data I saw that indeed it started rising again when Biden took office which I took to mean it correlates well at least directionally.

Iโ€™m open to tweaks or incorporating other metrics.

11mo

@voodoo Thatโ€™s another way to go

bought แน€10 NO11mo

Interesting question.

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