What will public US debt be as a percent of GDP for Q4 2024? | Manifold

What will public US debt be as a percent of GDP for Q4 2024?

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4

Ṁ928

9 hours ago

99.0%

> 115%

99.0%

> 100%

97%

> 120%

40%

> 122%

3%

> 125%

Resolves based on FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S which seems to be updated sometime after the quarterly GDP numbers are released, so we'll aim for late January 2025.

I will add more options if the numbers move significantly outside the current range. All markets that are correct will resolve YES.

As a starting point, it is 121.7% as of Q4 2023.

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I will wait till the FRED dataset updates to resolve according to the resolution criteria, but I believe it's possible to get the public debt and GDP number separately and project what FRED will update to

Up to 122.3% in Q1 2024. Seems to move about 1% per quarter on avg. With only 1 move not in a recession that was greater than 3%. Mean it is extremely likely to be between 116% and 128% with it only going over 130 in a recession.

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