How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release in exchange for Hamas hostages?
How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release in exchange for Hamas hostages?
Plus
26
Ṁ23672026
1%
0
52%
1-1000
21%
1001-2000
12%
2001-3000
7%
3001-4000
4%
4001-5000
0.9%
5001-6000
0.9%
6001-8000
0.9%
8001-10,000
0.8%
>10,000
Hamas has announced that they will release the Israeli hostages in the Gaza strip in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners in Israel. According to Al Jazeera, there are more than 10,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
This question resolves to the total number of Palestinian prisoners who are released by Israel in exchanges for the return of hostages held by Hamas.
If it is determined that all hostages have been rescued, released, or died before closing, this question may resolve early.
If no Palestinian prisoners have been released in such exchanges by closing, resolves to 0.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ20 2001-3000 YES8mo
The last deal Israel offered had a 30-50 to 1 exchange ratio. At ~100 prisoners this would be about 4k terrorists released.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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