Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?
Will there be another Arab Spring by 2035?
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Resolves YES if I see evidence of revolutions, protests, constitutional changes, etc. on the scale of the Arab Spring in at 3 least Middle East or North African countries within the span of 1 year. Otherwise resolves NO.
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‘Largest protests yet’: Masses around country rally against curbing of judiciary: https://www.timesofisrael.com/largest-protests-yet-masses-around-country-rally-against-curbing-of-justice-system/amp/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
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