Which of the following people, if nominated, will be confirmed by the Senate? [Add Answers]
Which of the following people, if nominated, will be confirmed by the Senate? [Add Answers]
➕
Plus
45
Ṁ33k
2026
88%
Adam Boehler
88%
Billy Long
95%
Charles Kushner
95%
D. John Sauer
89%
Daniel Driscoll
88%
Dave Weldon
97%
Elise Stefanik
92%
Frank Bisignano
99%
Howard Lutnick
98%
Jamieson Greer
92%
Janette Nesheiwat
90%
Jared Isaacman
88%
Jay Bhattacharya
88%
Jim O’Neill
89%
John Phelan
99%
Kelly Loeffler
98.2%
Linda McMahon
97%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
95%
Martin A. Makary
89%
Matthew G. Whitaker

Which of the above-listed people will be confirmed by the Senate?

§1 - A market will resolve "yes" once the Senate has confirmed that person. This will only apply to Senate confirmable positions

§2 - If the nomination is withdrawn after it is formally submitted to the Senate, the market will resolve "no". If the Senate rejects the nomination, the market will resolve no. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is not confirmed if the nomination is rejected, withdrawn, returned to the president under paragraph 6 of rule XXXI of the standing rules of the Senate, or not acted upon by the Senate for 100 days. For the purposes of this question, a nomination is confirmed once the Senate transmits to the president that the nomination has been confirmed and the president commissions the person.

§3 - If both the Trump administration and the nominee confirm that they will be withdrawing their name from consideration for nomination before their nomination is submitted to the Senate, that market will resolve N/A.

§4 - A recess appointment will not be sufficient to resolve a market to "yes"

§5 - On Adding Answers:

  • I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market, such as, if the person has not been announced as a nominee to a Senate confirmable position

  • If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

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