Will Trump do a good job?
Will Trump do a good job?
Basic
3
Ṁ1402029
8%
Republican Trifecta
8%
Democratic Trifecta
50%
Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress
34%
Republican wins Presidency and not Congress
In this market, 'doing a good job' leads to Republicans winning more elections. This market resolves to the outcome that best matches the results of the 2028 Presidential Election and Congressional elections. If Donald J. Trump does not win the presidency in 2024, this market will resolve immediately to N/A. The choices are 'Democratic Trifecta', 'Republican Trifecta', 'Democrat wins Presidency and not Congress', and 'Republican wins Presidency and not Congress'.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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