Update 2025-16-01 (PST): • Day One is defined as 24 hours after being sworn in as President. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - If an action occurs prior to Trump taking office that makes it impossible to resolve yes, the market will resolve as N/A. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution after one week: If no evidence of an action that will likely not be reported such as "eating a hamburger" or "pooping his pants" is provided within one week after being sworn in, the market will resolve as No.
Evidence Submission: If you have evidence of such actions, please post it in the comments.
Update 2025-01-28 (PST): - Re-resolution: The market will not be re-resolved after the initial one-week resolution. This allows participants to profit from the uncertainty. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
A significant gaffe is defined as a "signal" that is magnificent enough to warrant media notation.
This definition was chosen to minimize subjectivity by relying on media coverage.
Alternative definitions, such as "caused media outrage," were considered but not adopted.
1,000
3.00@TimothyBandors I'm not sure why this isn't resolved yes yet? I stated my reason for yes earlier in the thread.
@TimothyBandors wait, why do you think pardoning the Jan 6 insurgents is based? I thought you were a moderate libright, letting people go who tried to overthrow the democratically elected government seems like it serves the authoritarian cause
@TheAllMemeingEye They had no chance at a fair trial. Undercover agents led people around inside the capital. In my view they were political hostages.
@TimothyBandors But there is no proof of any undercover agents being present, right? And a Justice Department watchdog found no evidence for it either.
@TimothyBandors doesn't hostage taking require threats and demands? I don't recall Biden being like "Donald, if you run for another term, the Jan 6ers sleep with the fishes"
In about a week if there is no evidence of an act being done that is very likely not going to be reported, such as "eating a hamburger" or "pooping his pants" the market will resolve no. If you do have such evidence please post it in comments
@GazDownright True, but I like giving people the opportunity to profit from the uncertainty, and it makes my life easier.
@Quillist Just for bookkeeping... "Jim Bob Elliot"/"James Robert Elliot" was one of the people involved: https://abc7chicago.com/aurora-il-proud-boy-jim-bob-elliott-us-capitol-riot/14497541/
and I presume that means the guy is covered by the pardon.
Newsweek also explicitly names the guy as one of those pardoned: https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-january-6-prisoners-released-2018097
@Quillist Why did "Terminate offshore wind energy projects" resolve a NO when Trump did sign an executive order to end it? https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/temporary-withdrawal-of-all-areas-on-the-outer-continental-shelf-from-offshore-wind-leasing-and-review-of-the-federal-governments-leasing-and-permitting-practices-for-wind-projects/
Edit- I guess it has not resolved yet maybe? It should be resolve a YES anyway.
@card4man Likely if evidence points to it. Lot of paperwork going about so I am waiting at least 2 weeks for general clarity resolving these types of markets
@Quillist Temporary pause for review ≠ termination. In 2021, the Biden administration temporarily paused new oil and gas leases on federal lands for review, but the pause was later lifted.
There is a chance that Trump's EO regarding offshore wind will amount to mere posturing.
I was conflicted too due to this reasoning.
The question is ambiguous.
A (significant gaffe) could be interpreted as:
A gaffe that had considerable effects on his public image
or
A gaffe that is significant in that it is indefensibly a gaffe.
I looked at different lexicon references to identify what a serious gaffe might be
Cambridge Definition:
Meaning of gaffe in English. a remark or action that is a social mistake and not considered polite: make a gaffe I made a real gaffe - I called his new wife "Judy," which is the name of his ex-wife. You started eating before anyone else had been served?
@PoliticalEconomyPK posted such an example:
https://manifold.markets/Quillist/what-will-trump-do-on-day-1-of-bein#zmmpu4qsgbi
> From post it does appear that a misstep was made.
> The gaffe is very obviously a gaffe
> Several media sources reported on it.
It's hard to speculate what effect that any gaffe will have since Trump has a gaffe debuff aura, thus the market resolved YES.
A gaffe that is significant in that it is indefensibly a gaffe.
I think this is a massive stretch of wording to justify this. If the wording meant that, it could just say "unambiguous gaffe" or "indefensibly" or similar.
Significant means significant, aka it's impactful or big in some way. It should not be "There is no doubt that's a gaffe" otherwise there's no point of using the word significant there.
From the example given, I am calling it not impactful because it does not have significant reporting. I pointed out three major global news agencies (Reuters/BBC/NYT), none of which have reporting on the Spain-BRICS remark. CNN's post is just a bunch of "Here's all the lies/weird things Trump said during inauguration". If it was significant, they'd have a report on just the gaffe too.
Ultimately, literally everything will be reported by some news agency or the other, there's enough gossip rags out there. And trump does enough gaffes to get a "gaffe debuff aura"
My main point is just that it's not a "significant" gaffe, unless you see much more coverage than I do
> Make a significant gaffe that is covered by the media, as judged by Qullis
To clarify the indefensibly definition: in that it was a "signal" that is magnificent enough to warrent a media notation - which happened. I couldn't derive a resolution criteria outside of that isn't purely subjective.
Had the question said something along the lines of "caused media outrage" instead, I would be in favour of your stance.
In a way the ambiguity is actually more on who is the media, and whether a subset of institutions should define the whole. In absence of a qualifier I went with the simplest definition.
@michaelwardEnLS well, he did that: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/politics/silk-road-ross-ulbricht-pardon-trump/index.html
Edit: yes, but a day late. So should resolve as NO.
@mmmeta
He did, but this https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113869112741612092 makes it seem like it happened
after 24 hours of the inauguration thus this question should resolve NO
@SteveSokolowski Trump mistakes Spain of being a member of BRICS
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202501/1327359.shtml
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-spain-brics-b2683680.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2025/jan/21/donald-trump-wrongly-says-spain-brics-group-member-video
https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/trump-spain-brics-nato-tariffs-rcna188585
@PoliticalEconomyPK I think this is a gaffe, but I am not the judge of the question, as indicated by the question's text.
@PoliticalEconomyPK I disagree on the significance of this,
I'm looking at Reuters, NYTimes, BBC. And none of them have even mentioned this gaffe.
It seems to be just a regular mistake than a "significant gaffe" if none of the bigger newspapers are even covering it
@Soni also its kind of difficult to see if its covered in wsj nyt and others since every article is paywalled
@PoliticalEconomyPK Search indexes cover the websites even behind paywall. Just try googling
trump spain inurl:nytimes
and then do
trump ukraine inurl:nytimes
for comparision
As for CNN/Guardian/Independent, my main problem is that they're not covering it enough to be called a "significant" gaffe. Your CNN article has it sandwiched between 10 other things. Your Guardian link is just a video clip of him saying the thing.
That's not really significant or covered majorly in the news, is what I'm saying. It's a gaffe, but polticians make gaffes all the time - Donald Trump way more than usual. It's just not a significant gaffe or covered by the media enough
> Make a significant gaffe that is covered by the media, as judged by Qullis