What will happen before May 1, 2025? The rules for specific markets are in the comments.
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Read below:
Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
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On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
Answers must have clear criteria for resolving
No meta markets will be allowed (i.e. more than 10 answers resolved to "yes")
I will remain the decision-maker on the resolution of all markets. Any statement to the contrary in a market title will be removed.
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" or "No" that answer will resolve N/A
I will message the creator of a market that I do not believe conforms with rule number two on adding answers (that all answers must have clear criteria for resolving) and they will have 24 hours to provide a clear criteria for resolving (I will help create criteria) or else their submission will be N/A'ed. If there is a market that is possibly subject to N/A I will make that clear once I give the 24 hour notice to the creator of the market.
I will subsidize the first 10 to 15 good quality answers. If there is an incredibly high-quality answer, I will also subsidize it. Please see the comments below for more information
If the criteria for an answer are satisfied before Donald Trump takes office that answer will not resolve unless it is impossible for that answer to resolve yes or no after Trump takes office in which case that answer will resolve N/A.
Please note: that given the somewhat ambiguous of some markets, I will not trade on this market.
Update 2025-09-01 (PST): - YES if:
Section 3 or 4 of the 25th Amendment is invoked
Death of the President
Resignation of the President
Removal from office (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definitions
Eliminate Mandates: For this market, "eliminate mandates" means that Trump signs an executive order, law, or any other legally binding action that effectively ends federal vaccine mandates within the specified timeframe.
The action must be documented in official government releases (e.g., executive orders, laws passed and signed, federal agency directives).
State-level vaccine mandate changes do not count unless directly tied to federal action.
Statements, promises, or intentions without binding action do not qualify.
Vaccine Mandates: Rules or regulations that require individuals or groups to receive any vaccines to participate in activities, employment, or access certain public services, as instituted by federal law or regulation. To be clear, this requires the removal of any enforceable requirements compelling individuals to receive vaccinations, requiring vaccination to receive government benefits or employment, or penalizing non-compliance.
Update 2025-11-01 (PST): - A federal death row inmate is executed by the federal government. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-15-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria for Cease-Fire within Trump's First 100 Days:
Cease-fire Date: The date the cease-fire is entered into is the only date that matters.
14-Day Period: If a cease-fire is entered into before the first 100 days, but the required 14-day period for the cease-fire not to be breached overlaps into the first 100 days, the market will not necessarily resolve to "Yes".
Multiple Cease-fires: Another cease-fire agreement entered into within Trump's first 100 days, including one that builds on prior agreements, will count.
Hostilities: Continuing hostilities are not necessary for a cease-fire to count.
Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment Resolution:
The date used will be the date the House of Representatives adopts a resolution impeaching Donald J. Trump.
The market will not resolve until it is clear the resolution won't be rescinded, which is shown by either a motion to reconsider being laid on the table or the signing of the resolution.
If a resolution of impeachment and articles of impeachment are adopted separately, the time of the impeachment resolution's adoption will control.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria for 'Executive order ejecting transgender people serving in the military':
Ejectment of transgender individuals from the armed forces.
Requirement that transgender individuals serve under their sex assigned at birth rather than their gender identity.
1,000
3.00@traders I will also subsidize (i.e. compensate you for the cost of creating) any answers that are of very high-quality. Your high-quality answers need to be ones that would attract more traders and that have clear resolution criteria. Any very high-quality answer should be replied to this comment. Please keep in mind that for your market to be compensated by me. I will let you know before you add it. Please do not assume that I will compensate a market if I have not said so.
@AaronSimansky ha, I was hoping he’d be able to hold off a month or two so I’d get more trader bonuses. Good catch.
@traders Just a reminder because there was some confusion on the last resolution:
Should there be a dispute, the rules in the comments or those that have been otherwise provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio calls for retribution in chilling interview with Alex Jones hours after prison release
(…)
“Well, I mean, let’s be clear. Trump talked about getting the economy going and success. That’s key to keeping his support to do the rest,” the Infowars host responded. “But to have our success, we have to put the deep state in prison. Fauci, the traitor Milley, the J6 people.”
@JessicaEvans I think there's been a significant underestimation on just how transphobic, racist, and willing to act on both of those this administration is. Honestly thought they'd do it but that they'd wait at least a month or so.
@Lexer What does the chemical part of protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation refer to?
Trans military ban is here. It's mostly been left up to Hegseth to implement. Doesn't say verbatim that transgender people will be ejected, but that outcome seems fairly likely, considering. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/prioritizing-military-excellence-and-readiness-2/
@Marnix “Doesnt say transgender people will be ejected”
Yes it does? It says being transgender is “inconsistent with service”:
Consistent with the military mission and longstanding DoD policy, expressing a false “gender identity” divergent from an individual’s sex cannot satisfy the rigorous standards necessary for military service. Beyond the hormonal and surgical medical interventions involved, adoption of a gender identity inconsistent with an individual’s sex conflicts with a soldier’s commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle, even in one’s personal life. A man’s assertion that he is a woman, and his requirement that others honor this falsehood, is not consistent with the humility and selflessness required of a service member.
@KJW_01294 @Marnix @traders
I'm not going to resolve this market just yet because I want to ensure I correctly understand the impact that this executive order will have on currently serving transgender individuals in the armed forces. However, what I will say is that either the ejectment of transgender individuals from the armed forces or a requirement that they serve under their sex assigned at birth as opposed to their gender identity will count.
I consider a requirement that transgender individuals serve in accordance with their sex assigned at birth as a de facto ban of transgender individuals serving in the armed forces for the following reasons. The statement “Transgender individuals have the same right to serve in the Armed Forces as cisgender individuals as both can serve by using pronouns and live in barracks consistent with their sex assigned at birth” shares the same fundamentally flawed logic as statements such as:
· “Everybody has a right to practice their religion. Both Christians and Muslims have the right to attend church services”
· “Men and women have the same right to parental leave. Both can take time off after giving birth”
· “Gay people have the same right to marriage as straight people. Both can marry someone of a different sex”
· “The law… forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread” [1]
[1] France, Anatole, The Red Lily (Le Lys Rouge) (New York: Current Literature Publ. Co., 1910 г.), 107
@VonGadke I'm going to decide that this doesn't qualify for resolution yet given the line in the article
“The action does not have an immediate effect for transgender troops currently serving, said Adele Scheiber, communications director for the Modern Military Association of America, which advocates for LGBTQ service members. Trump has not instituted a new ban, but the repeal of Biden’s policy clears the way for one.” [1]
[1] Nikki Wentling, “Trump Revokes Order Allowing Transgender Troops to Serve in Military,” Military Times, January 21, 2025, para. 5, www.militarytimes.com
These are the rules for this market:
The date used for the purposes of this market will be the date the House of Representatives adopts a resolution impeaching Donald J. Trump. However, I will not resolve this market until it is clear that the resolution won't be rescinded which will be shown by either a motion to reconsider being laid on the table or the signing of the resolution. If a resolution of impeachment and articles of impeachment are adopted separately, the time of the impeachment resolution's adoption will control.
@Marnix Let me know if you approve of the following rules for this market:
This market will resolve "YES" if, within Donald Trump's first 100 days in office, Trump signs bill into law or takes any executive action purporting to completely repeal federal income tax. A law or executive action repealing federal income tax signed or issued within Donald Trump's first 100 days in office will count regardless of the effective date of the law or executive action. This will count, regardless of whether they are later found unconstitutional.
@AaronSimansky I'd include any attempt to do it by executive action, too, no matter how blatantly unconstitutional it'd be.
@AaronSimansky this already happened so will this just resolve YES as soon as he’s sworn in and they keep them up?
@LiamZ no federal order has been issued to raise the flags accordingly unless and until Donald Trump orders, the flags raised outside of the 30 days from Carter's death the market will not resolve.
@LiamZ the decision by Mike Johnson relates only to the flags flown on capital grounds and not to all American flags as presidential proclamations or orders under the US flag code generally do. Accordingly, this market will not resolve unless and until Donald Trump makes an order that the flags be raised outside of 30 days from Carter's death.
@AaronSimansky alright, the option doesn’t specify Trump ordering it and just says “flags” without specifying further.
@LiamZ as this entire market is about what will happen within Trump's first 100 days, and it says order flags to be flown at full staff, I assumed everybody understood that it was referring to an order by Trump. I will change the wording to make it extra clear.
@AaronSimansky there are other options that specify Trump taking specific actions and many that don’t require him to be involved.
@LiamZ as I said, I've changed the wording to make it extra clear and I'm glad that you clarified before trading on this market