Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?
Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?
Basic
6
Ṁ1722100
79%
SpaceX
13%
NASA
4%
China National Space Administration
4%
If there is a joint effort between two organisations (eg spaceX and NASA) I'll resolve to the one that paid for the trip.
For example a spaceX rocket landing on the moon, paid for by the Artemis program, would resolve to NASA (if this market were about the moon.
If an organisation sells tickets, it's the organisation paying for the trip and not the people/organisation buying the tickets.
If they share the cost I'll resolve to the share of the cost the organisations pay.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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