Which coalition will govern Germany after the next federal election?
15
Ṁ18162029
75%
CDU/CSU + SPD
3%
CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens
3%
CDU/CSU + Greens + FDP
3%
3%
CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP
2%
CDU/CSU + AfD
1.5%
CDU/CSU + Greens
1.4%
SPD + Greens + Left
1.2%
SPD + Greens
This market pertains to the next German federal election, scheduled to occur on or before 25 March 2029.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition that forms following the next German federal election.
The listed order of parties does not matter, so "CDU/CSU + SPD" is equivalent to "SPD + CDU/CSU".
"CDU/CSU" refers to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) collectively. If one of these parties forms a coalition without the other, the market will resolve to the option explicitly listing "CDU" or "CSU" as part of the coalition.
If no federal election occurs by 2030, or an election is held but no coalition is formed before then, this market will resolve to "No coalition before 2030".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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