What will be the sources of non-fossil-fuel energy production in the United States in 2040?
What will be the sources of non-fossil-fuel energy production in the United States in 2040?
Plus
13
Ṁ9672040
5%
Nuclear (fission)
19%
Nuclear (fusion)
26%
Wind
1.3%
Hydropower (rivers)
0.9%
Hydropower (wave/tidal/current)
0.1%
Bioenergy
0.8%
Geothermal
36%
Solar (photovoltaic)
0.4%
Solar (thermal)
10%
Other
This market resolves to the relative proportions of energy production as reported by Our World In Data, or a replacement source if necessary. (Usable energy; not counting waste heat.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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