What % of respondents to this question will believe "UFOs are alien spacecraft" on January 1, 2030?
What % of respondents to this question will believe "UFOs are alien spacecraft" on January 1, 2030?
Basic
6
Ṁ2212030
51
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
@MikeElias Is this a self-resolving market? Does it resolve by some other mechanism, and if so what? Can it resolve now either way?
If it is self-resolving, I'd recommend you consider other options in the future, these tend not to do what you want: https://manifold.markets/post/selfresolving-markets-why-they-dont
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will it be proven that MH370 was teleported by UFOs before 2030?
5% chance
By 2025, over 60% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
14% chance
By 2025, over 50% of Americans will believe that the UFO/UAP sightings by the military are aliens?
31% chance
Will we know interdimensional UFOs are real before 2026?
2% chance
At what odds would you bet that UFOs will not be revealed to have a worldview-shattering origin by mid-2028?
POLL
Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?
15% chance
Will we discover aliens before 2030
14% chance
Will strong evidence of aliens be discovered before 2030?
11% chance
Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?
7% chance
Will any government agency confirm the existence of alien life before 2030
14% chance