China and Taiwan 2030 [Mega Market]
Plus
6
Ṁ16732030
72%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 11
69%
China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)
67%
China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)
62%
China controls Wuqiu
62%
China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)
62%
China shoots down a Taiwanese plane
59%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 10
58%
China controls Kinmen
58%
China controls Matsu
58%
China controls Penghu
58%
100+ people are killed in the conflict
58%
1k+ people are killed in the conflict
58%
10k+ people are killed in the conflict
57%
China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)
52%
100k+ people are killed in the conflict
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 9
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 8
5%
China detonates a nuclear weapon
What will happen by Dec 31, 2030 at 23:59 in Taiwan?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
32% chance
Will China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2035
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
40% chance
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
43% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
43% chance
If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
72% chance