Conditional on a pandemic wiping out humanity by 2100, will it be natural or man-made?
Conditional on a pandemic wiping out humanity by 2100, will it be natural or man-made?
Basic
7
Ṁ2272100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
11%
Natural
89%
Man-made
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@ian Doesn't really matter how I judge ambiguous cases, since I will be dead if this market resolves to anything other than N/A. That being said, I think COVID-19 is probably natural, though if I had to resolve a market based on it, I would probably wait until the evidence is more conclusive, or until a long enough period of time passed with no further evidence coming out.
@MartinRandall I guess that would have to count as man-made, since it certainly isn't natural, and it's a result of human invention.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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How do I win cash prizes?
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