Will I think the "AI has a data bottleneck" people are dumb before the end of 2025?
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My current view is that synthetic data and/or RL is probably sufficient to get us to AGI, but I can respect people who think otherwise. If the gains of synthetic data and/or RL become so overwhelming at any point this year that I start to think data-naysayers are dumb, I will resolve this YES. Otherwise, I will wait until 2026 to resolve this NO. I won't trade on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I think that there is no bottleneck as there's a lot of non-public data that will find its way into training through partnerships, etc.
The idea of a bottleneck is partly based on a wrong assumption about data resources and their utilization to date.
Thinking of proprietary technical standards, etc.
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