Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025?
Will a nuclear device be used offensively before April 1, 2025?
➕
Plus
43
Ṁ9796
Mar 31
1.1%
chance

Any type of nuclear device or weapon qualifies as long as it is used offensively.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • Any territory in the world qualifies

  • Nuclear tests do not qualify as offensive use

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES2mo

The tags suggest it should be related to the Ukraine-Russia war, but the description doesn't specify this. To be clear, a nuclear device used by anyone, in any territory, excluding nuclear testing?

2mo

@FabioFabbrifabione Yes, any territory qualifies. The device only needs to be used offensively. Nuclear tests would not qualify.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules