Who will be elected Prime Minister of Japan?
Who will be elected Prime Minister of Japan?
Basic
17
Ṁ48952026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
99%
Shigeru Ishiba
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Prime Minister of Japan in the next election. In Japan, the House of Representatives, the lower house of Japan's legislature, elects the prime minister. The next general election is scheduled to happen before 30 October 2025.
If no one is elected Prime Minister of Japan in 2024 or 2025, this market shall resolve to "No one before 2026".
I will not bet on this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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