Will the US CY 2024 deficit be higher in 2024 than 2023 as a proportion of GDP?
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7
Ṁ336
Jan 26
88%
chance

Will be settled based on the 2024 December CBO report released sometime in January 2025 along with the BEA GDP estimates for 2024 also released in January.

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The figures I am finding are
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61151/html
Deficit FY 2024 $510 Billion
Deficit FY 2025 preliminary $710 Billion

The US GDP on September 30, 2023 was $27.97 trillion.
The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on September 30, 2024 was $29.37 trillion.

510B/27.97T = 0.018
710B/29.37T = 0.024

While preliminary deficit figure and GDP figures could be revised, I don't expect a one third increase to become a reduction.

@ZachariahSchwab how long do we wait for revised figures?
Is it what is available when the market closes? or
Do we wait until figures are no longer preliminary? or
If it is clear enough can we get an early resolution like now-ish?

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