If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have an approval rating higher than 50% one year later?
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Resolves according to 538 polling data about Trump's approval rating if he is elected, otherwise, resolves N/A.
If his approval rating is exactly 50%, resolves as 50%.
The current president's rating, Joe Biden's, can be found at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
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