Will there be a successful non-confidence vote in the Canadian Parliament before the next general election in Oct2025
Will there be a successful non-confidence vote in the Canadian Parliament before the next general election in Oct2025
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7
Ṁ195Oct 2
51%
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1W
1M
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This market predicts whether a non-confidence vote will be called in the Canadian House of Commons before the next general election in Oct 2025. A non-confidence vote is a substantial event that can lead to the dissolution of parliament and trigger a general election if the government fails to secure the majority's support. Currently the minority Liberal Government is propped up by a coalition with the NDP party.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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