By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
By 2028, will AI be capable of generating full high-quality explicit NSFW movies?
➕
Plus
53
Ṁ4242
2028
87%
chance

This refers to pornographic videography.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Q1: how long a movie would count as 'full'?

Q2: I expect ai-generated movies to be ~structurally different from what movies exist now, so: what counts as a movie? (Should it have verbalizable plot, dialogue, voice acting, consistent-ish characters, ~direction? Is Samsara (2011) a movie in the spirit of the question?)

Q3: I expect most if not all ai art to be considerably human-directed, so: how much/which parts of the movie must be ai-generated to count? (I assume >80% of the video is a must and that normal-for-today amount of curation and touchups of the raw content is fine; unsure whether human-supplied plot, dialogue, voice acting, and scene-edition are in spirit.)

1y

@797a

  1. Let us take a threshold of 8 minutes. This is the duration that the average person spends on p**nhub.

  2. That is correct. I did not see the recommendation yet, but judging from the remainder of the sentence, I'd agree.

  3. Yes that assumption holds fine to my taste (touchups by humanity are fine, it is the core material which is generated by the AI)

I am not familiar with the censorship on manifold and do not know how strict the moderation is on any links or explicit words. Hence I will link to a hackernews post that shows one example of work in this area: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32572770

1y

Yes @Joshua these do need to be photorealistic

1y

Do you generally endorse all of Scott's criteria?

"It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist."

1y

@Joshua Yes I do, but it did not seem appropriate (primarily due to my unfamiliarity with rules on Manifold re:NSFW content) to write a variant of that in the description (ex: what's the equivalent of star wars?!!) Otherwise, I do not know what ... "big budget studio" would mean, because some (ex: me) prefer home-made content - so this part seemed more subjective to me, and I did not include it.

1y

@sixtynine ... but yes, high-quality would mean high-quality. In AI video generation, it seems harder to generate a 480p video than a 1080p video from my current understanding.

1y

Cool, thanks for clarifying!

1y

At first glance this seems mispriced because one would assume this is a subset of "in 2028 will AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt", but since the "quality" of NSFW movies is such a lower bar, it actually makes sense.

1y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules