Will at least 25% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?
Will at least 25% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ1191
2029
84%
chance

Definition of Replacement:

  • A “replacement” occurs if a confirmed cabinet member officially vacates their role. This could be from resigning, dismissal, or any other reason that has them no longer able to fulfil their role and they no longer hold the position title.

  • They will count once this happens, even if they don't actually get replaced by someone else before Trump's term ends.

Cabinet Roles Included:

  • This market applies to all Senate-confirmed cabinet-level positions traditionally regarded as part of the President’s cabinet, including but not limited to the Secretaries of State, Defense, Treasury, and other executive departments.

  • The count will be based on the number of cabinet members originally confirmed at the start of Trump’s term.

Threshold for Market Resolution:

  • If more than 25% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to YES.

  • If fewer than 25% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will resolve to NO.

  • If exactly 25% of the starting cabinet members are replaced, this market will also resolve to NO (since the prediction is for “at least” 25%, which implies exceeding the threshold).

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
reposted 3mo

upgrade to plus

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules