Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?
Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ1064
2040
31%
chance

Resolves as YES if credible reports confirm the existence of concentration camps in Taiwan before January 1, 2040.

Criteria for Resolution:

  • Definition of Concentration Camps: For the purposes of this market, concentration camps are defined as facilities where individuals are detained in large numbers without due process, often based on ethnicity, religion, political beliefs, or other discriminatory criteria, and where conditions involve deprivation of human rights, including forced labor, or physical and psychological abuse.

  • Verification: The existence of concentration camps must be verified through credible international sources, such as reports from human rights organizations (e.g., Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch), reputable global news outlets (e.g., BBC, Reuters), or official statements from recognized international bodies like the United Nations.

  • Background: The concept of concentration camps is associated with human rights abuses and violations of international law. This market seeks to evaluate the likelihood of such measures being implemented in Taiwan, a country with a complex geopolitical situation and significant tensions with the People's Republic of China.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
MercurialGuesserboughtṀ50NO

Are POW camps that follow the rules of war counted?

Does detention in mainland facilities count?

9mo

@24a facilities have to be in Taiwan. If it is a war of aggression against Taiwan, then prisoners of war incarcerated in their home country after cessation of hostilities would count in my view. I'll give this some thought and maybe expand the detail a little bit.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules