On February 21st, I will take the highest and lowest approval value for the period between January 20 and February 20 on FiveThirtyEight's Trump approval tracker (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/). Every answer in between those values resolves YES. Every answer outside those values resolves NO.
If the approval tracker doesn't show an average in this period, every answer resolves NO. (It is not currently showing an average as of January 27)
Update 2025-28-01 (PST): - Average Update: The approval tracker is now displaying an average for the specified period, so the condition that "If the approval tracker doesn't show an average in this period, every answer resolves NO." will no longer affect resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-28-01 (PST): - Highest and Lowest Approval Values: Based on the average approval rating from FiveThirtyEight's tracker, not individual polls. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@marvingardens The average went up today, so this condition will not affect resolution
On February 21st, I will take the highest and lowest approval value for the period between January 20 and February 20
The highest and lowest value from the polls? Or from the estimated average line on the new graph?
@SaviorofPlant I am confused. Are you using the poll results directly or the 538 average “favorable” percentage as the basis for your resolution?
@BlueDragon I intend to use the average from this page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
This page does not show an average yet. I believe this is because they are waiting for more polls.
@SaviorofPlant ah ok, good clarification… not this page, which does show a graph but it’s different polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
That definitely tripped me up in my bets. Might be good to make sure your link is prominent, and scrub use of the term “favorability” since you need to distinguish this from what you are actually tracking, which is “approval”.
@BlueDragon Will stick with the link I added to the description since the question title mentions "approval" and it would be more confusing to switch it now
@SaviorofPlant I sold most of my shares because of this statement:
If the approval tracker doesn't show an average in this period, every answer resolves NO. (It is not currently showing an average as of January 27)
Now I'm not sure what you mean?
Trump's current favorability is floating around 46-47%, but that doesn't translate directly to approval numbers.
This is an experimental market idea. To some extent we're trying to predict a random walk, but I think it'll be interesting to see how much these numbers follow the typical trends.