Do we know the Privilege Score of the air traffic controllers and airplane pilots?

@Shai Oh, indeed, I might also have to take a linear combination of PROBs corresponding to several contributing actors, weighted by the reciprocal of their Privilege Scores.

If this news from FakeGayPolitics turns out to be true (and the person is found to have contributed), I will resolve to a high PROB (50-80%), since the person would have been allowed to serve due to DEI policies but would not strictly be a DEI hire. Which contradicts the example I initially provided in the description ("100% yes for a trans helicopter pilot"), apologies for the lack of foresight.

The FAA actually did have a diversity hiring scandal -- see eg https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/the-faas-hiring-scandal-a-quick-overview. I would expect that it might be extremely hard to determine the counterfactual impact of this though on one particular incident.

AIUI, the TLDR is that they ran a test asking random biographical info -- eg, "Science was my worst subject at school" was awarded a positive score -- with a 90% fail rate, and gave people with the demographics they were trying to increase the answers beforehand. (This test was after all the test-takers had already completed all their usual training to be air traffic controllers.)

counterfactual impact of this though on one particular incident.

@binarypigeon Of course. I will not try to establish if the mistake (if a mistake contributed to the disaster) would have been avoided by a non-DEI hire, just whether there was a person with DEI-like characteristics involved. I will also not try to establish whether the person actually lacked any qualifications, instead just whether they belonged to one of the groups favored by DEI. Only way to make the market work.

@skibidist Sorry, I'm not following your examples here. I'm not familiar with typical job requirements of ATC but why would being in a wheelchair guarantee that an air traffic controller was a DEI hire? Same with trans example.

Are/were there DEI policies that privilege hiring of either of these categories?

@extrasensory_homunculus You are correct that I cannot possibly determine they were hired because of the policies. Instead, the market will be judged solely on whether they have the characteristics that DEI policies favor.

Are/were there DEI policies that privilege hiring of either of these categories?

Yes. I would encourage you to look up the details. You could start with President Trump's executive order, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/keeping-americans-safe-in-aviation/

@skibidist My language was intentional. I asked whether there were policies privileging the hiring of either category. I am not aware of such policies. [Edit I was incorrect. I conflated two separate things. The executive order you've referred to rolls back Executive Order 11246, which did not create a policy privileging the hiring of those categories discussed. ]

Since you must be familiar with the existence of a policy I am not, I would appreciate if you directly identified the policy so I and others can understand this market more fully and bet accordingly.

Perhaps the situation covered by the Tracing Woodgrains link?

@extrasensory_homunculus I haven't checked that one (is it valid?). I will send you what prompted the examples in a minute.

Yeah that seems like a pretty clear cut example to me, though iiuc Congress prohibited in 2015 the practice they were using.

https://web.archive.org/web/20230213135948/https://www.faa.gov/jobs/diversity_inclusion

These were the characteristics sought by the FAA:

Targeted disabilities are those disabilities that the Federal government, as a matter of policy, has identified for special emphasis in recruitment and hiring. They include hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability and dwarfism.

and possessing them was enough to skip the regular competitive recruitment process:

A non-competitive hiring method for filling vacancies with Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities.. Managers can choose to fill an open position through the On-the-Spot hiring process given they provide the required documentation for doing so

@extrasensory_homunculus Please let me know if you have any further questions. Otherwise, I hope this helps you make an informed bet.

@extrasensory_homunculus If you don't believe any of those were hired for roles that might have contributed to the disaster, that's an argument for a NO bet.

@skibidist Thanks! This definitely helps. Seems like the disabled example is cut and dry. Was there a different policy for transgender people or do you happen to know that they were included in the above process? Trying to figure out why you included that category as example of 100% yes resolution.

@extrasensory_homunculus The trans example refers to the helicopter pilot since those were soldiers. Biden signed an executive order allowing trans people to serve (EO 14004) , which I count as part of the DEI initiatives since it mentions both diversity and inclusion in its text.

@extrasensory_homunculus For a trans flight controller, I would still count them as 100% DEI if they were hired during Biden's administration, and 0% DEI if they were hired 30 years ago (even if they, for example, recently transitioned).

was not a good situation tbh

I am not going to bet obviously due to subjectivity involved in the criteria, but Acceleration is going to own you all

What prompted this hypothesis?

@KJW_01294 President Trump's recent executive orders mentioned ensuring safety by removing DEI policies .. so presumably they made flying in the US unsafe